Contents
1. Sales Surge Continues
- National volume: January sales jumped ~40% YoY with 112,000+ units sold, led by existing-home demand (~80k) and new builds (~33k).
- Mortgage boom: Despite interest rates hovering near 50%, mortgage-backed sales grew ~183% YoY—though still only ~15% of total.
Çağatay Köroğlu (CEO, Landmark Titan Realty): “We’re witnessing a mortgage revival—even high rates don’t deter buyers searching for inflation hedges.”
2. Financing & Inflation
- High inflation (~39%) underpins strong nominal price growth.
- Mortgage enthusiasm continues: Kaya saw a separate 182.8% YoY uptick in installment sales in January.
“Clients are increasingly leveraging short-term, high-rate mortgages, betting property will outperform inflation.”
3. Inventory & Speed
- Quick transactions: Homes average ~60 days on the market—bolstered by foreign currency-seeking investors.
- Rising permits: Residential construction permits soared ~24% in 2023, with a projected 7% increase in 2025 hinting at new supply coming online.
4. Foreign Buyers’ Role
- January dip: Foreign buyers fell ~25% YoY, but remain ~1.4% of market share.
- Notable trend: Russians lead, followed by Middle Eastern and Western investors.
“Citizenship via investment still anchors foreign interest—especially among affluent Russians and Gulf nationals.”
5. Urban vs. Suburban Appeal
- Urban hotspots: Şişli, Maslak, Levent, Ataşehir, Beşiktaş attract investors for metro access, smart tech projects, and ongoing urban renewal.
- Suburban momentum: Büyükçekmece, Silivri, Başakşehir, Beylikdüzü rise as pandemic-induced remote-work preferences persist.
- Senior housing gains traction—Turkey’s 65+ population now ~10%—with early absorption growth ~40%.
“Developers are pivoting toward multi-generational, amenity-rich housing beyond city centers.”
6. Sustainability and Tech
- Smart homes & green builds are now mainstream in premium projects, delivering drought-resilient landscaping and cutting-edge energy solutions.
“Landmark Titan is launching EV-charging-ready, solar-equipped luxury blocks in Istanbul.”
7. Price and Yield Insights
- Istanbul prices have surged ~800% over the past decade, reaping strong rental and capital returns.
- Current yields:
- Istanbul ~6.2%
- Ankara ~7.1%
- İzmir/Antalya/Bursa ~5–7%
- STR growth: Central districts (Şişli, Beyoğlu) have witnessed ~1000% rent escalation over four years.
“Short-term rentals in prime districts cut vacancy risk and yield 10-15%, far outpacing long-term leasing.”
8. Key Risks
- Inflation & mortgage rates may mute domestic demand unless cuts emerge.
- Currency volatility complicates investment valuations.
- Foreign demand damping, as geopolitical and economic variables weigh in.
“We advise clients to structure FX-hedged investments to mitigate lira-side risk.”
9. H2 2025 Outlook
- Momentum remains, with growth moderating across domestic and foreign segments.
- Rate relief expected—even mild cuts could catalyze homebuyer re-engagement.
- Foreign appetite depends on CBI program stability and global sentiment.
- Supply-demand balance: 7% permit growth should stabilize stock, with continued investor focus on Istanbul, resort markets, senior housing, and sustainability.
“2025 is a controlled momentum play—selective investing in city centers and suburban smart homes will likely outperform.”
Strategic Takeaways for Investors
| Investor Type | Key Opportunities | Considerations |
|---|---|---|
| Foreign / Cash | Istanbul premium, coastal lifestyle homes, CBI eligibility | Watch forex volatility, CBI thresholds |
| Domestic / Mortgage | Suburbs & affordable suburbs, smart/energy-efficient new builds | Dependent on rate cuts & stabilizing inflation |
| Rental Investors | High-yield urban rentals, short-term in tourist zones | Strategically location-sensitive; see capital appreciation |
| Developers | Senior housing, smart sustainable projects, urban renewal densification | Regulatory framework, infra timelines, cost control |
Türkiye’s real estate market in H1 2025 remains dynamic—buoyed by rising interest in mortgages, foreign investment anchored by citizenship programs, and sustained price growth. Navigating inflation, rate volatility, and currency fluctuations is crucial—particularly for domestic buyers, developers, and rental investors. Smart capital flows into transformative projects: urban renewal, senior housing, sustainable builds, and strategic suburban markets.